Houston, TX

Humberto unexpectedly turned into a Category 1 hurricane before hitting high Island and then the Beaumont and Port Arthur coastline. Although there is some flooding, the main damage is loss of power, damage to houses, downed tree limbs, and debris. One man did die when his carport fell on him. It also affected refinery operations. Houston once again managed to remain clear of the storm. However, there is already another tropical depression in the Caribbean.

Do you think our area’s luck will hold?

Houston, Hurricane Humberto, Humberto, Beaumont, High Island, Port Arthur

According the Environment News Service newswire, “Texas Governor Rick Perry Friday declared Hurricane Dean an imminent threat to Texas, initiating full-scale state hurricane preparedness efforts.”

Coastal Houston and south are on alert because various projections have Dean hitting the Texas coast sometime mid-next week.

UKMET…GFS…AND CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GFDL CALLS FOR A MOTION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST…WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL YUCATAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

Although it is possible that Dean won’t be an issue for the Houston area, it’s still best to prepare in case it does aim for us.

How do you prepare? Following are some tips I collected:

1. Know whether you are in an evacuation zone. The rule of thumb is: run from water, hide from wind. If you are not in an evacuation zone, take shelter in an interior portion of your home. NOAA updated the evacuation zones in May 2007. The new PDF map displays evacuation zones broken down by zip code. It’s very easy to understand. If you are in an evacuation zone, make sure you know your evacuation route and site.

2. The National Hurricane Center has general preparedness guidelines, including an easy-to-use checklist:

• DEVELOP A FAMILY PLAN - Your family’s plan should be based on your vulnerability to the Hurricane Hazards. You should keep a written plan and share your plan with other friends or family.
• CREATE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT - There are certain items you need to have regardless of where you ride out a hurricane. The disaster supply kit is a useful tool when you evacuate as well as making you as safe as possible in your home.
• SECURE YOUR HOME - There are things that you can do to make your home more secure and able to withstand stronger storms.
• ONLINE VULNERABILITY INFO - There are web sites that can give you information about your communities vulnerability to specific hazards. These include hurricanes as well as other weather related hazards.

3. Pay attention to local news bulletins that will keep you apprised of risk and action you need to take. Most area towns have Web sites where they post community specific information. The State of Texas has online materials with information about hurricanes and state planning and preparation.

4. Take flooding seriously. Flash floods and flooded streets are dangerous. Heed warnings, and remember, “Turn around! Don’t drown!” Of the 22 metro-Houston residents killed in 2001’s Allison, most lost their lives while trying to drive or walk through flooded roads.

5. Check on friends and neighbors, especially the elderly and infirm, to ensure they have the help they need.

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On Tuesday, August 14, 2007 the National Weather Service upgraded Dean to a Tropical Storm. As of Tuesday evening, the storm was moving in a northwesterly direction towards Puerto Rico.

So what does this mean for Houston?

With so many variable conditions contributing to storm path, it’s nearly impossible to predict. However, sea surface temperatures, pressure and wind patterns and so forth are all favorable for supporting storms, and even allowing them to escalate to hurricanes.

In fact, just last week National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued an updated 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. They are not only holding to their predictions to expect above-normal severe storm to hurricane activity, but they’ve predicted an even more dire season than they originally did in May

The outlook calls for an even higher probability of an above-normal season than was predicted in May (75%), and reiterates the expectation for a sharp increase in activity from the near-normal season observed last year. The 2007 season is expected to become the tenth above-normal season since the current active hurricane era began twelve years ago (in 1995). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The 2007 outlook calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 140%-200% of the median. These ranges are slightly tighter than those predicted in May (13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 125%-210%). The tighter ranges reflect not only an increased confidence for an above normal season, but also a reduced likelihood of seeing as many as 10 hurricanes and 17 named storms.

Currently, there is a system in the Gulf that is the first bit of concern for Houston in this year’s hurricane season

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

In other words, if you live in Houston (or anywhere along the Southern Texas and Northeastern Mexico Coastal areas) pay close attention to the weather in the coming days. In case this system does continue to organize, conditions are ripe for it to turn into a hurricane just beneath the strength of Rita. Be prepared to close up shop and evacuate if you live in an evacuation zone. (For information about hurricane preparedness, read this.)

Note: And to those of you who don’t live in evacuation zones? A kind request from those of us who do: please remember the evacuation rules (only those in designated zones—which were updated in May 2007 so check this PDF link to a zip code map—should evacuate, and in their zone order) and the hurricane rule of thumb—run from water, hide from wind. Let’s not make this as horrific as Rita.

At a minimum, expect rain Wednesday and Thursday.

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I mentioned before that I grew up in Seattle so I love the rain as much as anyone else from the Evergreen State. It’s just that rain is so different here.

Yesterday, the humidity stayed at 85% while the temperature fluctuated between 65-75 degrees. Walking outside was like standing in a very cool sauna or jumping back into the shower with a fluffy towel after you’ve turned the water off. You still get damp, but not warm and fuzzy - more like sticky and bit chilled.

So, I blame the rain for the lack of posting yesterday. I was tired and my head was hurting, possibly from the drastically falling barometric pressure. That’s what I like to tell myself anyways.

I’ll make up for it today with a post about the controversy raging Fort Bend Independent School District (ISD) right now. Something about an “officer and a gentleman”. Stay tuned.

I grew up outside of Seattle, WA, so I expect rain every now and then. Actually, I learned in Mongolia that months without rain leave me stir crazy and staring up at the sky wondering when I’ll get a good opportunity to not leave the house all day and read a book.

The rain in Houston, though, is like nothing I have ever seen. It rains in torrential sheets. It’s angry, fierce rain that causes almost instaneous flooding in at least 15 spots around town.

Last night, the storm that worked its way through the Mid-West ended up in Houston and traveled down to Mexico. At 8pm, I started to hear the wind howl outside the window in my third story apartment. At 10:30pm, the power started flickering on and off, causing all of clocks in my house to start flashing 12:00am and my digital cable to reboot itself at least five times.

In my new apartment, my son and I sleep at opposite ends of the small space. It’s just far enough that I get paranoid that something might happen to him and I won’t hear it. Last night I was lying in bed listening to the wind and the rain smack at my bedroom window thinking, “What if a tree branch breaks off and smashes his window and I don’t hear it? Then he’ll get up and toddle over to the window to see what happened, cut his foot on a piece of broken glass while tripping and diving head first out the window. All because I let my BAAAABBBBBYYYYY sleep alone during a storm!”

Clearly, I need get out more.

I went to Zac and picked up all 28 sweaty pound of toddler and took him to my bed with me. I undressed him from his too-hot pajamas after the power tripped the air conditioning off again and I slept with his hands cluching my arm and his left foot on my kidney.

In the morning, instead of being cranky and fussy, he woke up next to me and looked the happiest that I have seen him in a long time. He laid his head on my shoulder and we watched the opening of the morning cartoons together.

If it weren’t for stories like this, I would be thankful for the storm.

Houston, Weather, Storms, Parenting, Toddlers