Houston, TX

On Tuesday, August 14, 2007 the National Weather Service upgraded Dean to a Tropical Storm. As of Tuesday evening, the storm was moving in a northwesterly direction towards Puerto Rico.

So what does this mean for Houston?

With so many variable conditions contributing to storm path, it’s nearly impossible to predict. However, sea surface temperatures, pressure and wind patterns and so forth are all favorable for supporting storms, and even allowing them to escalate to hurricanes.

In fact, just last week National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued an updated 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. They are not only holding to their predictions to expect above-normal severe storm to hurricane activity, but they’ve predicted an even more dire season than they originally did in May

The outlook calls for an even higher probability of an above-normal season than was predicted in May (75%), and reiterates the expectation for a sharp increase in activity from the near-normal season observed last year. The 2007 season is expected to become the tenth above-normal season since the current active hurricane era began twelve years ago (in 1995). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The 2007 outlook calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 140%-200% of the median. These ranges are slightly tighter than those predicted in May (13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 125%-210%). The tighter ranges reflect not only an increased confidence for an above normal season, but also a reduced likelihood of seeing as many as 10 hurricanes and 17 named storms.

Currently, there is a system in the Gulf that is the first bit of concern for Houston in this year’s hurricane season

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

In other words, if you live in Houston (or anywhere along the Southern Texas and Northeastern Mexico Coastal areas) pay close attention to the weather in the coming days. In case this system does continue to organize, conditions are ripe for it to turn into a hurricane just beneath the strength of Rita. Be prepared to close up shop and evacuate if you live in an evacuation zone. (For information about hurricane preparedness, read this.)

Note: And to those of you who don’t live in evacuation zones? A kind request from those of us who do: please remember the evacuation rules (only those in designated zones—which were updated in May 2007 so check this PDF link to a zip code map—should evacuate, and in their zone order) and the hurricane rule of thumb—run from water, hide from wind. Let’s not make this as horrific as Rita.

At a minimum, expect rain Wednesday and Thursday.

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